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2025 India–Pakistan conflict

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(Redirected from Operation Bunyanun Marsoos)
This article is about the escalation that began on 7 May 2025. For the diplomatic crisis and border skirmishes immediately preceding this, see 2025 India–Pakistan standoff.

2025 India–Pakistan conflict
Part of India–Pakistan wars and conflicts, 2025 India–Pakistan standoff and Kashmir conflict
Date7–10 May 2025 (4 days)
Location
Result Ceasefire[1][2]
Belligerents
 India  Pakistan
Commanders and leaders
Narendra Modi
Rajnath Singh		 Shehbaz Sharif
Khawaja Asif
Asim Munir
Units involved

 Indian Armed Forces

 Pakistan Armed Forces

Casualties and losses
Third-party sources:
Per Pakistan:

Per India:
Third-party sources:
Per India:

Per Pakistan:

The 2025 India–Pakistan conflict was a brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan that began on 7 May 2025, after India launched missile strikes on Pakistan, during the codenamed Operation Sindoor.[b] India stated that the operation was a response to the Pahalgam attack on 22 April by militants in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir killing 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists. The attack intensified tensions between India and Pakistan as India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, which Pakistan denied.

According to India, the missile strikes of Operation Sindoor targeted the camps and infrastructure of militant groups Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, and no Pakistani military facilities were targeted. According to Pakistan, the Indian strikes targeted civilian areas, including mosques. Following these strikes, there were border skirmishes and drone strikes between the two countries. On 10 May, Pakistan launched a retaliatory operation codenamed Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos,[c] that they stated targeted several Indian military bases.[61] India's military said that Pakistan's retaliatory strikes targeted civilian areas, including Hindu and Sikh religious sites[62]. In retaliation, India also continued Operation Sindoor, expanding its scope to attack Pakistani military installations.[63] This conflict marked the first drone battle between the two nuclear-armed nations.[31]

After three days of the conflict, both India and Pakistan announced that a ceasefire had been agreed after a hotline communication between both their DGMOs, effective from 5:00 pm IST/04:30 pm PKT (11:30 UTC) on 10 May, with talks set for 12 May.[64][15] Following the deadline, both countries accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement.[65]

Background

Further information: 2025 India–Pakistan standoff and 2025 Pahalgam attack

The Kashmir conflict, ongoing since 1947, has fuelled multiple wars and skirmishes between India and Pakistan over the disputed region.[66]

On 22 April 2025, a terrorist attack by militants near Pahalgam in the Indian administered Kashmir killed 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists.[67][68] The Resistance Front, an offshoot of the militant organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is backed by Pakistan,[69][70][71] initially claimed responsibility for the attack, which it later retracted.[72] In the aftermath, India announced a series of retaliatory measures against Pakistan, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, prompting responsive measures and leading to a diplomatic crisis and border skirmishes.[73][74][75] On 30 April, Pakistan claimed that a military strike by India was imminent.[76][77]

Timeline

7 May

Targets of the maiden missile strikes in Operation Sindoor
Sr. No. Places City/Province
1 Sawai Nala Muzaffarabad
2 Syedna Bilal Muzaffarabad
3 Gulpur Kotli
4 Barnala Bhimber
5 Abbas Kotli Kotli
6 Bahawalpur Punjab
7 Murdike Punjab
8 Sarjal Punjab
9 Mehmoona Joya Punjab

On 7 May 2025, the Indian Armed Forces launched a series of 14 attacks, codenamed Operation Sindoor, targeting nine locations in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and Pakistan's Punjab province.[78][79] The attack was presumably carried out by the Rafale aircraft of the Indian Air Force using SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer glide bombs over a 23-minute duration.[80][81] Reportedly, BrahMos cruise missiles as well as Indian Army's Indo-Israeli SkyStriker loitering munitions were also used in the operation.[82][83] A Pakistani general said that the strikes were conducted without Indian aircraft entering Pakistani airspace.[84]

The Indian government described the strikes as "focused, measured, and non-escalatory".[85] It claimed that the missile strikes targeted the infrastructure of terrorist groups Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba; and no Pakistani military facilities were targeted.[86][87][88] The missile strikes targeted camps across nine locations including Bahawalpur and Muridke, alleged to be the hubs of terrorist organizations Jaish-e-Mohammed[89] and Lashkar-e-Taiba respectively.[90][91]

In response to the attacks, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif convened a meeting of the National Security Council to coordinate retaliatory strikes. The NSC declared that Pakistan "reserves the right to respond, in self-defence, at a time, place, and manner of its choosing."[92] According to The Guardian, Sharif gave the Pakistani army, under Asim Munir, the right to respond in any way needed.[93]

According to India, Pakistani cross-border artillery shelling and small arms firing increased following the Indian attacks,[94] including in the regions of Kupwara, Baramulla, Uri and Akhnoor, located in Indian-administered Kashmir.[95]

Pakistan said that it had downed three Rafales, one MiG-29, one SU-30MKI and an unmanned aerial vehicle.[96] A French intelligence official told CNN that an Indian Rafale was downed by Pakistan, though the French military did not comment.[97] Reuters reported that unnamed Indian government sources said that three fighter jets had crashed in India due to unknown causes.[98] On 8 May, an unnamed US official told Reuters that he assessed with "high confidence" that Pakistani J-10 aircraft had shot down at least two Indian fighter jets; a second official assessed one of the downed jets to be a Dassault Rafale.[3] The Washington Post later said that it had identified 3 crash sites in India from 7 May, identifying two of them as belonging to an Indian Dassault Rafale and Dassault Mirage 2000.[5] On 9 May, local government sources in Indian Kashmir told Reuters that 3 fighter jets crashed in India on 7 May with 3 pilots being hospitalized.[99]

On 11 May, while responding to a question on whether the force suffered losses, the Indian Airforce said that "losses are a part of combat" but declined to provide information on whether any losses had occurred.[100]

8 May

On 8 May, India said that Pakistan had launched drone and missile strikes on several Indian cities, including Amritsar, and that India negated these strikes by the S-400 missile system, denominated as Sudarshan Chakra marking India's first combat use of the that missile system.[101] The Indian government said it was "compelled to respond to bring Mortar and Artillery fire from Pakistan to a halt".[102] However, Pakistan denied these claims and reported that the Indian Army mistakenly struck itself in Amritsar and blamed it on Pakistan to fuel anti-Pakistan sentiment among Sikh people.[103] Pakistan also denied launching a drone and missile strike on India.[104]

In response to the alleged Pakistani attack, Indian Armed Forces said that they had carried out SEAD/DEAD operations, neutralizing Pakistani air defence systems in Lahore. Pakistani authorities said that several Indian drones intruded in Pakistani airspace, and 12 Indian drones were shot down. As per Pakistan, these drones were sent into nine different locations including the cities of Karachi and Lahore, and one of the drones struck a Pakistani military facility near Lahore.[105][106] The Pakistani military later said to have shot down 25 Israeli-made Harop loitering munitions in the Pakistani side of the border, an Indian government source confirmed at least one of those being taken down.[107][108] A drone also landed inside the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium complex before the start of a Pakistan Super League match, prompting the Pakistan Cricket Board to transfer the games to the United Arab Emirates.[109]

Later that day, India said that Pakistan had launched airstrikes directed in and around Jammu district including the airport and the university. All of the eight Pakistani missiles were claimed to have been intercepted by the S-400 missile system. Reportedly, multiple explosions were heard in Jammu along with an explosion in Jaisalmer,[110][111][112] where drones and fighter jets were also reported.[113] India later said that, these attacks involved 300-400 Turkish-Asisguard Songar drones targeting 36 sites, including civilian and military infrastructure.[114][115][65] India also reported cross border firing by heavy calibre artillery guns along the Line of Control (LoC).[65][116]

Reports termed this conflict as the "first drone war" between the "nuclear-armed neighbours" of South Asia;[31] the deployment of Israeli-Indian drones was particularly noteworthy.[82]

9 May

On 9 May Pakistani media reported that India attacked a Sikh gurdwara, Gurdwara Janam Asthan in Nankana Sahib, which was denied by India.[117] Foreign Secretary of India, Vikram Misri addressed the allegations in the media briefing of 9 May.[118] The Pakistan Army also said to have neutralised 77 Indian drones since 6 May.[65]

Exchanges of fire had stopped in the early morning.[119] However, clashes restarted after "13 hours of relative calm". Exchanges of artillery fire began in Kashmir, including in, Kupwara, Poonch, Uri, and Samba along the LoC.[120] Pakistan reportedly targeted 26 locations across LoC and International Border from the Baramulla in the North to Bhuj in the South with drones including armed ones.[121]

During a press briefing, Pakistan once again denied conducting missile and drone strikes on Indian military installations and proposed a neutral third-party investigation, which it claimed was ignored by India.[122][123][124]

Pakistan also accused India of striking its own territory with ballistic missiles in Adampur and Amritsar, saying that India had targeted the Sikh population in an alleged false flag operation aimed at generating domestic support.[124][122] India denied the Pakistani claims and called it an attempt by Pakistan to hide its own aggression. India also said that a Pakistani attack on a gurdwara in Poonch led to the death of religious leader among other locals of Sikh community.[118]

10 May

The conflict escalated on 10 May. India accused Pakistan of launching missile attacks on air bases in Punjab in the early hours.[125] The most serious one of these attacks was said to be a Fatah-II long-range missile intercepted near the Sirsa Air Force Station shortly after midnight.[126] There was speculation that it was headed to Delhi.[127][128]

India said it launched its own retaliatory attacks on Pakistan's air bases in response. These were said to have been precision attacks on identified military targets.[125] At 3:30 am, Pakistan acknowledged attacks on airbases (Nur Khan, Rafiqi, and Murid), which were apparently via air-to-surface missiles launched from fighter jets.[125][129] Pakistan claimed that the "majority" of the missiles were intercepted, but apparently not all. The Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi was hit, and the resulting explosion and flames caused mass panic in the densely populated area.[125][130] Pakistan's state media reported that Shaikh Zayed International Airport in Rahim Yar Khan was damaged in an Indian airstrike.[131][better source needed]

Shortly after the Indian missile strikes, Pakistan launched a retaliatory operation, codenamed Operation Bunyan-un-Marsus.[125][d] It claimed to have struck 26 military targets causing major damage, including 15 air bases of Suratgarh, Sirsa, Naliya, Adampur, Bhatinda, Barnala, Halwara, Awantipur, Srinagar, Jammu, Udhampur, Mamoon, Ambala and Pathankot.[14][9] It further claimed that the BrahMos storage facilities at Beas and Nagrota were destroyed, and that two S-400 systems at Adampur and Bhuj were neutralised by the Pakistan Air Force.[14][9] India denied damage to its airbases, including Sirsa Air Force Station and Suratgarh Air Force Station, and rejected claims regarding the destruction of its S-400 and BrahMos systems calling it a "malicious misinformation campaign".[134] It released time-stamped images of the targets as evidence, and reported minor damage to its airbases in Udhampur, Pathankot, Adampur and Bhuj.[135][21]. That the extent of damage to the Indian airstrips was minimal was further confirmed through commercial imagery obtained by The New York Times [29].

Pakistan stated that military logistics and support sites such as the Field Supply Depot in Uri and Radar Station in Poonch were targeted, and command headquarters such as 10 Brigade and 80 Brigade at KG Top and Nowshera, as well as proxy training and intelligence fusion facilities in Rajouri and Nowshera, were destroyed.[14] Pakistan further claimed that Indian military elements across the Line of Control, including headquarters, logistic bases, artillery positions, and posts, were heavily damaged.[14][9] Pakistan also claimed that its drones flew over major Indian cities and sensitive political and military sites, including New Delhi.[14][9] Additionally, Pakistan reported a spike in terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which it claimed was sponsored by India.[14]

The Indian Army released images of what it said were debris of a Baykar YIHA III loitering munition destroyed by the air defence units. It said the drones were used to target civilians areas in Amritsar at around 5 am.[136][137] India claimed it carried out precision airstrikes on Pakistan Air Force bases at Rafiqui, Murid, Chaklala, and Rahim Yar Khan Airport in retaliation for drone attacks along the western sector. The strikes also reportedly targeted military sites in Sukkur and Chunia, a radar installation in Pasrur, and the Sialkot aviation base.[138][21] India also said that it had extensively damaged air bases at Skardu, Sargodha, Jacobabad, and Bholari in Pakistan.[118]

Pakistani state media claimed that Pakistan launched a cyberattack as a part of the operation, targeting the Indian military satellites and government websites.[139][140] Concurrently with the missile strikes, heavy fighting took place at the LoC near Sialkot and Rajouri.[141] India's military said that Pakistan's retaliatory strikes targeted civilian areas, including a Hindu temple in Jammu, with drones, killing at least five people.[142][143] Analyst Michael Kugelman posited that the two countries were now "effectively at war";[144] but neither side had mobilized ground forces, according to a former Indian diplomat.[145]

A ceasefire began at 17:00 (IST)/16:30 (PKT).[65] It was first announced by US President Donald Trump on social media[146][147] prior to the official statements by the Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers.[64][148] After the ceasefire, there were reports of explosions in the cities of Srinagar and Jammu according to authorities, residents and Reuters witnesses.[15]

Ceasefire

A fragile ceasefire was achieved around midday on Saturday, 10 May, with the intervention of the United States. The US grew concerned with the possibility of the conflict turning nuclear, and the Secretary of State Marco Rubio started making calls from 4:00 PKT. He spoke to Pakistan's Army chief Asim Munir, national security adviser Asim Malik and prime minister Shahbaz Sharif. Vice President J. D. Vance was in touch with the Indian authorities, including prime minister Narendra Modi. Interventions were also made by Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE and the UK. The Indian and Pakistani heads of military operations spoke on phone at 2:30 pm for the first time since the conflict broke out.[149]

Agreement

Main article: 2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement

Foreign Secretary of India Vikram Misri and the Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar[64][148] stated that both militaries agreed to a full ceasefire and that hostilities would end as of 5:00 p.m. IST/4:30 pm PKT (11:30 GMT).[150][151]

Dar stated that 36 countries helped broker the truce.[152] However, an Indian official told Agence France Presse that the ceasefire was negotiated bilaterally in the sense that "stoppage of firing and military action between India and Paksitan was worked out directly between the two countries".[153] United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that both nations would discuss "a broad set of issues at a neutral site" and that he and Vice President JD Vance had extensively corresponded with senior officials on both sides.[154] Hours later, following ceasefire violations, Indian officials had not yet voiced readiness for talks.[155] US president Donald Trump made a post on social media about the ceasefire around late noon IST/PKT, prior to the official announcements by the Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers.[156] Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif stated that Trump had played a "pivotal and paramount role" in facilitating the truce along with representatives of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, the UK, UN, and China.[157] Thanking the heads of India and Pakistan, President Trump vowed to enhance trade "substantially" with both nations.[158]

Following the agreement, Pakistan reopened its airspace to commercial flights.[159][160] Military hotlines between the two states were activated.[161]

Meanwhile, Lieutenant General D S Rana, Director General of Defence Intelligence Agency, briefed defence attache from 70 nations, for about 30 minutes, on the "success of Operation Sindoor".[162][163]

Accusations of violations

10 May: Minutes after the ceasefire announcement, loud explosions were heard and projectiles were seen in the sky over the cities of Srinagar and Jammu in Indian-administered Kashmir.[164][15][165] Late on 10 May, Misri stated that there had been violations of the ceasefire agreement, citing cross-border firing and sightings of Pakistani drones over Srinagar and Punjab, and called on Pakistani authorities to "address [the] violations".[15] Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah also reported explosions in Srinagar, expressing concern over the apparent collapse of the ceasefire.[166][167][168] Pakistani Information Minister Atta Tarar denied Indian claims that Pakistan had violated the ceasefire, calling reports by the Indian media as "baseless".[169] Pakistan later also accused India of committing ceasefire violations in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.[65] By 11 May, reports suggested that "serious violations" of the truce had ceased,[170] and that the situation had stabilized in many cities on the Indian side of the LoC.[171] Businesses reopened in Srinagar as calm returned.[172][173] In India, Gujarat Minister of State Harsh Sanghavi announced that a blackout would be implemented in the Kutch district after drones were spotted in the sky.[174] In Pakistan, civilians in Peshawar heard anti-aircraft gunfire after drones were spotted in the sky.[175]

12 May: Indian media claimed that "suspected Pakistani drones" were detected and engaged in Samba district of J&K. Blackouts were imposed in several border towns including Amritsar as a precautionary measure.[176][177] After midnight, the Indian Army said, "no drone activity has been detected recently, and the ceasefire situation prevails."[178]

Casualties

India

India said that 21 civilians and 5 military personnel had died in the conflict.[24][22] The casualties and majority of the injuries occurred in Poonch district[179][180][181] where Indian media sources said that a gurudwara, a school and houses were damaged in the attacks.[182] Pakistani shelling hit a Catholic school in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing two students. The convent of the Carmelites of Mary Congregation was damaged as well.[183]

Pakistan

Pakistan said that 51 people had died in the clashes, including 40 civilians and 11 military personnel.[184] Reuters reported that a mosque was damaged in Muzaffarabad in the attacks,[185] and BBC News referred to a local report that said that an educational complex was hit in Muridke which included a school, a college and a medical clinic.[186] BBC News said that the Muridke complex was used by Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan based UN-designated terrorist group. Later, it was also used by its front group known as Jamaat-ud-Dawa.[187] Sky News found videos posted on social media sites with supportive expressions for atleast two terrorist groups, Lashkar-e-Taiba and 313. It reported that Markaz Taiba Mosque of Muridke being used as a terrorist complex. Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) told Sky news that, it has been long known for decades about the headquarters of Lashkar-e-Taiba in Muridke. It was denied by Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif who called it a media hoax.[188] Similarly, Al-Jazeera noted this site as the most significant among the others hit by India. This compound was founded by NIA Most Wanted, Lashkar-e-Taiba's co-founder Hafiz Saeed.[189] Saeed also founded Jamaat-ud-Dawa as a rebrand of Lashkar-e-Taiba. They pose as a charity group according to MEMRI.[190][189] Masood Azhar, the leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, said ten of his relatives were killed in the Indian attacks, including five children from his extended family.[191][192]

Bahawalpur was one of the targets of Indian strikes. The headquarters of Jaish-e-Mohammed, a UN-designated terrorist group were believed to be situated in Bahawalpur. After the strikes, reports claimed that Abdul Rauf Azhar was killed as the headquarters was destroyed.[193] He is alleged to have been one of the co-conspirator in the death of Daniel Pearl, an American journalist associated with The Wall Street Journal.[194][195][196] The Jerusalem Post and Algemeiner Journal reported that Pearl's father Judea Pearl has also spoken about this incident on social media by clarifying the details that led to death of his son Daniel. He also wrote about those involved in this including Azhar.[197][198]

India claimed that at least 100 militants had been killed in the missile strikes,[199] and that Pakistan lost 35 to 40 personnel in the conflict.[167]

Air strikes

On 7 May 2025, after India launched air strikes on nine alleged "militant camps" in both Pakistan and Pakistan-Administrative Kashmir, as a tit-for-tat, Pakistan claimed to target several Indian military bases. In retaliation, on 9 and 10 May, the Indian Armed Forces carried out multiple air-strike operations, but this time with an expanded scope to target Pakistani military installations.[27][29] As per Indian media reports, the air strikes were planned by India's Chief of the Air Staff Amar Preet Singh while NSA Ajit Doval granted the final clearance.[200][201] These strikes were reportedly conducted by Indian Air Force's Sukhoi Su-30 MKI fighter jets armed with BrahMos missiles.[202]

As per evidences, including high-resolution satellite images, according to The New York Times, while the attacks were widespread, the damage was far more contained than claimed.[29] Christopher Clary, a University at Albany professor and expert on India-Pakistan relations, stated to The Washington Post that satellite evidence supports the claim that the Indian military inflicted significant, though not devastating, damage on Pakistan's air force at several eastern bases.[203]

India managed to cause damage deep inside the Pakistani side, targeting airfields and more defense systems, and also striking near one of Pakistan's crucial strategic headquarters. Indian missile barraged on 3 major Pakistani Air Bases and other facilities, including PAF Nur Khan air base, which is just 10 kilometers away from capital of Pakistan, Islamabad. According to a eye-witness and two Pakistani security officials, the attack on Nur Khan air base saw at least two missile strikes as well as drone attacks. The barrage took out two roofs and hit the hangar of a refueling plane, according to one of the officials, who visited the base the next day.[26][27] Nur Khan air base is located just over a mile from the military-run body responsible for Pakistan's nuclear planning too. According to Christopher Clary, an associate professor at the University at Albany, "So, an attack on the facility may have been perceived as more dangerous than India intended – and the two sides should not conclude that it is possible to have a conflict without it going nuclear".[26]

At PAF Bholari air base, located less than 100 miles (160 km) from the largest city of Pakistan, Karachi, India's defense officials said they had struck an aircraft hangar with a precision strike. The visuals showed clear damage to what looks like a hangar.[29] On 10 May, Pakistan issued a NOTAM declaring the runway at Rahim Yar Khan air base non-operational for a week until 18 May due to a "Work in Progress" (WIP).[204][205] Satellite imagery taken after the Indian strike showed a crater on the runway that was not present in earlier images.[29][206] At PAF Sargodha air base, located in Punjab Province, the Indian military claimed to have used precision weapons to strike two sections of the runway. Here too, satellite imagery confirmed the presence of a crater on the runway.[29] India appears to have had a clear edge is in its targeting of Pakistan's military facilities and airfields, as the latter stretch of fighting shifted from symbolic strikes and shows of force to attacks on each other's defense capabilities as stated by The New York Times.[29]

Alleged nuclear escalation

Some reports claimed that India's missile-drone strikes on several Pakistani airbases, especially PAF Base Nur Khan,[207][208] prompted US intervention for ceasefire agreement. The base is reportedly a strategic asset for PAF as "one of the central transport hubs" and "home to the air refueling capability" (No. 10 Squadron). The facility was also "a short distance" from the headquarters of Strategic Plans Division responsible for Pakistan's nuclear arsenal which includes over 170 warheads. The New York Times also cited a former American official who stated, "Pakistan's deepest fear is of its nuclear command authority being decapitated" and that the Indian missile strikes were interpreted to be a warning for India's capability to do the same.[28][209][210] However, unlike the claims of multiple reports, India denied that it had struck the Kirana Hills Site.[211][212] The International Atomic Energy Agency also affirmed after investigations that there had been no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan.[213]

On 14 May, Reuters reported that Indian strikes on Nur Khan Airbase had alarmed US officials, due to the bases proximity to Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, which is responsible for its nuclear planning.[26]

Aerial skirmishes

On 7 May, Indian and Pakistani fighter jets battled for over an hour.[214][215][216][217] According to Pakistan, three Dassault Rafales, one MiG-29 and one Su-30MKI fighter jet belonging to the Indian Air Force were reportedly shot down.[218][7]. If true, would first time that a French-origin Dassault Rafale has been lost in combat, reportedly having been shot down by the Chinese-origin Chengdu J-10.[219][3]

This, along with the performance of Chinese-origin PL-15 missiles in the combat, reportedly gained global attention.[220][221][219][3]

According to Pakistan, the Pakistan Air Force intercepted and destroyed 84 Israeli-made Harop drones, sent by India to target terrorist installations.[222]

The Pakistan Air Force reiterated its earlier downing claims of five Indian fighter jets, including Rafale aircraft, backed by crash locations, how the interception of combat formations was conducted, Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) transcript of the pilot's final communications, and flight data.[122][124][223]

Indian military claimed that Pakistan jets were prevented from entering the Indian airspace and that "a few" of their fighter jets have been intercepted and the wreckages were outside Indian borders. The exact numbers were not revealed.[32] On claimed jet losses, the Indian Air Force said "losses are a part of combat" without additional details, adding that all pilots were back home.[100] According to France 24, India’s refusal to confirm or deny the loss of the jets gave further credence to the downing claims.[224] Defence analyst Michael Clarke told Al Jazeera that if India had lost a Rafale jet, "that would certainly be embarrassing."[225] He added that if the aircraft had come down within Indian territory, India would likely try to keep it as an unconfirmed rumour for as long as possible, and that its general statement on "inevitable losses" might be the closest it comes to confirmation.[225] Pakistani military claimed one of its aircraft suffered minor damage in a confrontation with India.[226]

On 12 May 2025, the Indian military showed the supposed wreckage of what it claimed to be a Mirage III or Mirage 5, claiming its interception.[33][34]

Analysis

The conflict was subject to extensive analysis by multiple columnists, and several analysts noted that there was no clear winner.[227][228][229] According to Al Jazeera, analysts contend that neither side emerged with a definite upper hand, and both nations made certain strategic gains even as they each also suffered losses.[230]

According to The Financial Times, India and Pakistan are both claiming victory, but the "ceasefire gave Islamabad the diplomatic upper hand", as US intervention bracketed India, the "fifth-biggest economy with what it sees as a terrorism-backing rogue state". [229]

According to The New York Times India's role was "assertive" and "aggressive", and possibly established a new level of deterrence with Pakistan. The Times did not see India's military performance against Pakistan as showing significant improvements, noting that in its initial strikes, India struck targets deeper inside enemy territory than it had struck in previous decades and had hit close enough to locations affiliated with "terrorist activities" that India could claim victory against these groups.[227]

According to the Atlantic Council, the war "appeared to unify fractured Pakistani political forces domestically" and resulted in Pakistan having a diplomatic advantage over India regarding Trump's involvement in ceasefire talks.[231] According to The Washington Post, Pakistan's celebration that "ceasefire with India reestablished deterrence", "may be clouding a clearheaded assessment" and the "regional status quo had been upended" with more aggressive strikes by India including a strike at Pakistan's military headquarters.[232]

According to the French newspaper Le Monde, this military operation against Pakistan revealed weaknesses in the Indian Air Force, and that the success of the Pakistan Air Force had to do with the superior training and combat experience of most of the pilots as they had been fighting continuous counterterrorism air campaigns in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, whereas India had largely remained at peace.[233] However it stated "This new major military confrontation, the fourth since the partition and creation of Pakistan, produced no winners, unlike the previous three wars won by India."[234]

In an article for The Nation, journalist Hasan Ali called India's strikes against Pakistan a "strategic flop". He attributed it primarily because of its aerial losses suffered and its rejuvenation of the Kashmir issue in Pakistan.[235] According to The Diplomat magazine's Pakistan correspondent Umair Jamal, Pakistan comes out "emboldened" after clashes with India. He says that the conflict unified the country, that the Pakistani military has emerged more popular than earlier, and that the political leadership now see the need to strengthen the armed forces. He believes that Pakistan scored a diplomatic win by acting with "restraint" and finds the US intervention a welcome development. He claims that the US intervention has favoured Pakistan more than India.[236]

American geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert writing for the The National Interest described the aerial duel between both countries as an unambiguous victory for Pakistan, insofar as western observers had not expected Chinese-made equipment to be able to shoot down the Rafales,[8] and asserted the Pakistanis successfully shot down a total of five Indian Air Force warplanes.[237]

Retired Indian Navy officer and analyst C. Uday Bhaskar told Deutsche Welle that "India and Prime minister Modi had to respond to the 22 April attack because opposition parties and social media users were circulating clips of Modi criticizing former Prime minister Manmohan Singh for not retaliating after the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Therefore, Modi had to prove that he could act on India's 'cross-border strike' policy by targeting locations such as Muridke and Bahawalpur in Pakistan's Punjab province." Bhaskar added that "this narrative reinforces the aggressive image of 'India under Modi's leadership,' which follows a hardline and zero-tolerance policy against terrorism. It supports the narrative of Modi as a 'protector of Hindus,' which carries electoral benefits. The upcoming Bihar assembly elections will be a test for this narrative."[238]

Impact

Pakistani airspace was closed for 48 hours and all flights were cancelled.[239] In Pakistani Punjab, schools and colleges were closed, and CIE examinations were cancelled in most of Pakistan.[240][241][242] In India, at least 25 airports in the north and west were shut down until 10 May.[243] The Indian Air Force took control of Srinagar Airport and civil operations were stopped for an indefinite period.[244]

The Indian Premier League transferred a match between Punjab Kings and the Mumbai Indians scheduled at Dharamsala on 11 May to Ahmedabad, citing the closure of Kangra Airport and other logistical issues caused by the ongoing tensions.[245] On 9 May, the tournament was suspended for a week.[246] Similarly, during Pakistan Super League, a match between Karachi Kings and Peshawar Zalmi was postponed.[247] On 9 May, the Pakistan Super League was reportedly suspended "indefinitely" because of "worsening of the situation between India and Pakistan".[120][119]

Apart from Pakistani TV channels, Indian government restricted six Bangladeshi channels' YouTube accounts under the section 69(A) of Information Technology Act, 2000 citing "threat to the national security or public discipline", which included Jamuna TV, Ekattor TV, Banglavision, Mohona TV, Somoy TV and DBC News, without any explanation or notice. This measure received protests from Bangladeshi government.[248] More than 8,000 Twitter accounts were blocked in India.[249] X accounts of Chinese state-run media Xinhua News Agency and Global Times, and Turkish public broadcaster TRT World were also blocked in India.[250]

According to the BBC, there were a number of misinformation campaigns in both countries following the strikes.[251][252][253]

Stock markets in India and Pakistan experienced significant volatility through the week due to escalating geopolitical tensions, but rebounded sharply on 12 May following the ceasefire agreement.[254][255]

See also: Self-defence in international law

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) stated that the casualties of the Indian air strikes were "a grave violation of international human rights law and could constitute crimes against humanity".[256]

In The Hindu, legal journalist Aaratrika Bhaumik argued that for military self-defence to be legal under Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, military actions have to "immediately" be reported to the UN Security Council (UNSC). Bhaumik interpreted the Indian foreign minister's 8 May briefing of 13 of the 15 UNSC member states to be "apparent adherence" to the Article 51 requirement and stated that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) interpreted Article 51 to only be valid in the case of defence against attacks by non-state actors if a state were responsible for the attacks. O. P. Jindal Global University legal scholar Prabhash Ranjan interpreted the foreign minister to have avoided references to international law and to have attributed the attack to Pakistan as a state. He viewed the foreign minister's legal argument to be based on a contested Indian view of the right to defence against non-state actors presented at a February 2021 Arria formula meeting. Ranjan viewed the Indian military strikes of 7 May 2025 to have satisfied the principles of military necessity and proportionality.[257][neutrality is disputed]

Reactions

Involved parties

Supranational bodies

International

  •  Afghanistan: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA–MoFA) released a statement expressing their concern over the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, additionally reaffirming their belief that security and stability serve the collective interests of all countries in the region. Afghanistan urges both sides to exercise restraint and resolve their issues through dialogue and diplomacy.[272][non-primary source needed]
  •  Algeria: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed deep concern about the recent escalation of armed exchanges between India and Pakistan, urged both sides to maintain self‑restraint and calm, to return immediately to dialogue in a spirit of responsibility, and warned that political and diplomatic means must prevail over the use of force.[273][non-primary source needed]
  •  Bangladesh: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in an official statement, said it is closely observing the situation. Additionally, it has urged both nations to exercise restraint and maintain calm.[274]
  •  Brazil: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the ceasefire and urged both India and Pakistan to work towards lasting peace through dialogue and mutual confidence.[275][non-primary source needed]
  •  China: A Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that China found India's military operation early in the morning regrettable. The spokesperson expressed concern about the ongoing situation and urged both sides to act in the larger interest of peace and stability, to remain calm, exercise restraint, and refrain from taking actions that might further complicate the situation.[276][277][278]
  •  Germany: The foreign office issued a statement online, urging that "Escalation must be prevented and civilians protected."[279]
  •  Indonesia: The Minister of Foreign Affairs promptly released a statement stating that Jakarta would closely monitor the course of the crisis between India and Pakistan. The ministry's statement said, "We urge both parties to exercise restraint and prioritize dialogue in resolving the crisis."[280]
  •  Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi during a visit to Islamabad urged both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation.[281]
  •  Israel: Ambassador to India Reuven Azar said that Israel supports India's right for self-defence. He added that "terrorists should know there's no place to hide from their heinous crimes against the innocent."[276][277]
  •  Japan: Foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya released a statement declaring that the country is "deeply concerned that the recent series of events could lead to further reprisals and escalate into a full-scale military conflict."[279]
  •  Maldives: Foreign Minister Abdulla Khaleel welcomed the "immediate ceasefire" between India and Pakistan, while urging peace and dialogue to ensure regional stability.[282]
  •    Nepal: Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli thanked both India and Pakistan for the cessation of hostilities, called for lasting peace between both nations and highlighted the teachings of Buddha and the message of non-violence of Buddhism.[283]
  •  Philippines: The Department of Foreign Affairs called for the situation to be resolved peacefully. "The Department is closely monitoring the situation between India and Pakistan. We call for a peaceful resolution to the current issues," DFA Spokesperson Maria Teresita Daza said.[284]
  •  Qatar: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged diplomacy and restraint.[285]
  •  Russia: Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called both involved parties to exercise restraint and expressed the country is "deeply concerned about the intensifying military confrontation between India and Pakistan after the terrorist attack near the city of Pahalgam".[286]
  •  Singapore: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs voiced its alarm about the ongoing military conflict between India and Pakistan, urging both sides to use diplomacy to reduce tensions and protect civilians.[287]
  •  Sri Lanka: President Anura Kumara Dissanayake welcomed the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, calling it vital for regional stability. President Dissanayake also said that Sri Lanka is ready to make whatever contribution to achieve regional peace.[288]
  •  Ukraine: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for both parties to pursue diplomatic engagement and avoid escalation.[289]
  •  United Arab Emirates: Foreign minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan called for both sides to show restraint and avoid an escalation.[290]
  •  United Kingdom: Foreign Secretary David Lammy called on both sides "to show restraint and engage in direct dialogue to find a swift, diplomatic path forward."[291][65]
  •  United States: President Donald Trump remarked that "It's a shame" and said "I just hope it ends very quickly."[292] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to the national security advisers from India and Pakistan and urged both to keep lines of communication open and avoid escalation.[293][292][147] Vice President JD Vance said that, a potential war between India and Pakistan is "none of our business." Furthermore, he said that, "We want this thing to de-escalate as quickly as possible."[253]
  •  Uzbekistan: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and prevent the escalation of hostilities. Uzberkistan also said that it closely monitoring the situation and offered to support efforts aimed at de-escalation between both nations.[294]
  •  Vatican City: Pope Leo XIV expressed hope that "a lasting agreement may soon be reached."[295]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Pakistani government claim; unconfirmed by military[18]
  2. ^ Sindoor is a reddish pigment used by Hindu women on their foreheads to indicate their married status.[57] This was allegedly due to Hindu men being selectively targeted in the earlier Pahalgam attack, leaving their wives widowed.[58][59]
  3. ^ The term Bunyan-un-Marsoos[60] is an Arabic term meaning "Unbreakable Wall". The operation's name is derived from a verse in the Quran that states: "Surely Allah loves those who fight in His cause in ˹solid˺ ranks as if they were one unbreakable wall (bunyan al-marsus)." (Quran 61:4)
  4. ^ Bunyan-un-Marsus is a name that derives from the Quran means: "a wall constructed of molten lead," an attempt to show the nation is fighting for a greater cause.[132][133]

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